Prospect Analysis of Aeroengine Industry promoted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Techno

OFweek Industrial Control Network News: the research and production of aviation materials, there is a part of AVIC industrial system, but mainly rely on external research and production capacity. From an investment point of view, the most direct beneficiaries of the aero-engine project will be those listed companies that can produce aviation materials, such as Gangyan Gaona, Fushun Special Steel and so on. Private listed companies outside the system that benefit from civil-military integration, focus on small and medium-sized engine maintenance, and have products in the engine control system will also get better development opportunities.

The aero-engine special campaign has been actively under preparation, and Miao Wei, minister of industry and information technology, made it clear a few days ago that the special action will be officially launched this year. According to the information obtained from various sources, this special action will focus on the field of turbofan and turbojet engines, while taking into account the fields of turboshafts, turbopropellers and piston engines with certain market demand. The main research and development of large culvert ratio large turbofan engines, small and medium-sized turbofan / turbojet engines, medium and high-power turboshaft engines and other key products.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the aero-engine special campaign will be officially launched this year and will first focus on the field of turbofan and turbojet engines.

In order to promote the research and development of key products quickly and effectively, the special action will also arrange a number of industrial demonstration projects, including commercial aero-engine operation, aero-engine intelligent production line and so on. Key components such as advanced large culvert ratio fan systems and advanced pressure ratio high pressure compressors, as well as key technologies such as long-life turbines and advanced aviation composite materials, will also be one of the key points of the special action.

Last week, the appointment of the China Aeroengine Group was settled. These messages without exception tell investors that the aero-engine field is ushering in an once-in-a-lifetime development opportunity. In order to grasp the investment opportunities of the aero-engine sector, we analyze the relevant industrial chain and put forward corresponding investment suggestions. The establishment of China Aeroengine Group Corporation means the arrival of the era of "Feifa separation". Under the original AVIC industrial system, the development of the engine is attached to the aircraft, only one aircraft model can correspond to one engine model, the research and development of the aircraft model is blocked, and the corresponding engine model is also affected. However, the development cycle of the engine is often longer than that of the aircraft, so that the engine always lags behind the development of the aircraft.

In the research, we learned that in the long run, "Feifa separation" will help to improve efficiency, but also in line with international practice. The original engine plate assets belonging to AVIC are transferred to the Guofa Corporation, which has reduced an intermediate level in management and raised the administrative level. After independence, the Guofa Company will focus more on the development and production of the engine. However, it will take a long time to realize the efficiency improvement brought about by institutional change. In the short term, the investment opportunities brought about by the asset restructuring of the aero-engine sector as expected by the market may not exist; in the medium to long term, the characteristics of the military industry and the market prospect of the aero-engine itself determine the stable growth prospects of the listed companies involved in this sector.

Prior to this, the pattern of China's aero-engine industry was dominated by AVIC, and most of the links in the industrial chain were within AVIC. Under the existing plate of AVIC Industry, AVIC engine Holdings Co., Ltd. and AVIC Commercial Aeroengine Co., Ltd. are the main bodies of the aero-engine business sector. the former represents AVIC to manage and invest in its engine plate member units, carry out investment, financing and guarantee business, and do not engage in specific production and operation activities. At present, AVIC engine Holdings Co., Ltd. has six aero-engine mainframe manufacturing units.

According to the data of the National Manufacturing Power Construction Strategy Advisory Committee, in the next 10 years, the cumulative global demand for turbofan and turbojet engines will exceed 73600 units, with a total value of more than 416 billion US dollars; the cumulative demand for turboshaft engines will exceed 34000 units, with a total value of more than 19 billion US dollars; and the cumulative demand for turboprop engines will exceed 16000 units, with a total value of more than 15 billion US dollars. The cumulative demand for piston engines exceeds 33000 units, accounting for more than 60% of the total flight power market, with a total value of about 3 billion US dollars. At the same time, the cumulative market demand for large turbofan engines for domestic trunk airliners exceeds 6000 units, with a total value of more than 50 billion US dollars, and the opening of low-altitude airspace will further stimulate the demand for turbines, pistons and other engines for general-purpose aircraft.

At present, the localization rate of aero-engines in China is low, and there is more room for localization and replacement in the future. The report of the forward-looking Industrial Research Institute "Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis report of China's Aeroengine Industry from 2016 to 2021" predicts that by the end of the 13th five-year Plan, the scale of China's aero-engine industry will exceed 70 billion yuan, and some products will enter the international market. By 2025, the industrial scale will break through 100 billion yuan, and the industry will enter the first echelon in the world.

In the survey, it is found that compared with the establishment of Guofa Company, the industry is more concerned about the implementation of aero-engine projects. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology made it clear a few days ago that this special campaign will be officially launched this year. At present, the general expectation in the market is that this major project may reach hundreds of billions of dollars, the investment cycle may be shortened to less than 10 years, or even reach 5 years, and the investment intensity will be greatly increased. In the next 20 years, China will eventually invest as much as 300 billion yuan in the engine field.

The information I learned from the two sessions this year is that this special action will focus on the areas of turbofan and turbojet engines, while taking into account the areas of turbine shafts, turbopropellers and piston engines with certain market demand; the special action will also arrange a number of industrial demonstration projects, including commercial aero-engine operation, aero-engine intelligent production line, and so on. In addition, special attention will also be paid to the construction of advanced aero-engine materials such as titanium alloys, superalloys and advanced composite materials.

Generally speaking, the special action mainly includes two aspects: one is to focus on the mechanism research. This work is mainly concentrated in the research institute. Since the development of the aero-engine must rely on a large number of empirical data, which can only be obtained by our own experiments, after the engine is designed and manufactured, a large number of tests have to be done to verify it. Many tests must be done by the development procedures and specifications, including parts test, component test, system test, core machine test, whole machine test, etc., which consume a lot of materials and energy, so. The mechanism research is long period and large investment, so it is difficult to see economic benefits in the short term.

The second is focused material research. Aero-engine is a thermal machinery that provides power for aircraft, which needs to work under the conditions of high temperature, high pressure and high speed rotation, and has very high requirements for materials and technology. If the materials industry does not produce the best high-temperature materials, the performance of the engine will not go up.